China s economy;Not with a bang

　　中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì);不咋地;

　　China s property prices and its local-governmentdebt have started rising again. That may be a goodthing

　　中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和地方政府債務(wù)又開始上升了，這或許是件好事

　　FangZhuang, a high-rise neighbourhood tuckedinside Beijing s third ring road, was one of China sfirst commercial housing projects. Its fourdivisions share a park, schools, a courthouse and aCarrefour supermarket. Characters in the divisions four names combine to mean stars ofthe ancient world. Back in 1990 Fangzhuang flats sold for about 1,500 yuan per square metre, according to Credit Suisse, a bank. Since then, prices havereached for the stars of the modern world, exceeding 30,000 yuan in that part of Beijing.

　　擠在北京三環(huán)內(nèi)的高層住宅區(qū)方莊，曾是中國(guó)第一個(gè)商業(yè)住宅項(xiàng)目。它的四個(gè)小區(qū)共用一個(gè)公園、學(xué)校、一個(gè)法院和一個(gè)家樂(lè)福超市。將這四個(gè)小區(qū)名字中間的漢字連起來(lái)就是古城群星。根據(jù)瑞士信貸一家銀行，早在1990年，方莊公寓大概賣1500元一平米。從那以后，價(jià)格就成了當(dāng)世巨星，北京那一塊的價(jià)格超過(guò)了3萬(wàn)元。

　　China s unruly property market was once dubbed, with excusable hyperbole, the mostimportant sector in the entire global economy by Jonathan Anderson, then at UBS, anotherSwiss bank. It remains the biggest fear hanging over the world s second-biggest economy.Home prices began falling about a year ago. The declines have depressed investment andcurtailed economic growth, which slowed to 7.6% in the second quarter, its slowest rate since2009.

　　中國(guó)不規(guī)范的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)曾被當(dāng)時(shí)在瑞銀信貸另一家瑞士銀行的喬納森安德森封為整個(gè)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中最重要的部分，運(yùn)用了適當(dāng)?shù)目鋸垺Ｋ€是懸在世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體之上的最大擔(dān)憂。住宅價(jià)格約一年前開始下跌。該下跌抑制了投資，還縮減了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)減緩至7.6%2009年以來(lái)最慢的增長(zhǎng)率。

　　The only economic anxiety to rival property is local-government debt. Estimated at 10.7trillion yuan at the end of 2010 by official auditors , muchof it was held at one remove by so-called local-government financing vehicles. When onesuch, Yunnan Highway Development and Investment, told creditors in 2011 that it would notrepay the principal on their loans, it was described as the defaultheard around the world by Business Insider, a news website.

　　唯一能與房地產(chǎn)匹敵的經(jīng)濟(jì)上的憂慮就是地方政府債務(wù)了。2010年底官方審計(jì)部門估計(jì)有1.7萬(wàn)億元，其中很多隔離出來(lái)讓所謂的地方政府融資平臺(tái)持有。當(dāng)這樣的一家公司云南高速公路開發(fā)投資公司，在2011年告訴債權(quán)人將不會(huì)歸還他們貸款的本金時(shí)，這被一家資訊網(wǎng)站《商業(yè)內(nèi)幕》形容為地球人都知道的違約。

　　Both worries have roots in the stimulus spree on which China embarked in November 2008.State-owned enterprises began bidding enthusiastically in land auctions, and localgovernments let their pet projects run wild. Ever since, the two problems have preoccupiedChina s central government. In April 2010 it put curbs on speculative homebuying and spentmuch of last year tidying up local finances. This spring, Wen Jiabao, the prime minister,boasted that local-government debt had grown by a mere 300m yuan in 2011.

　　這些憂慮都源于中國(guó)2008年11月著手的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃。國(guó)有企業(yè)開始在土地拍賣中狂熱地競(jìng)標(biāo)，而地方政府讓他猛寵愛(ài)的項(xiàng)目撒野了。從此，這兩個(gè)問(wèn)題就困擾中國(guó)的中央政府了。在2010年4月，它開始限制投資性住房的買入，還用了去年大部分時(shí)間清理地方融資問(wèn)題。今年春季，總理溫家寶自豪地說(shuō)，2011年地方政府債務(wù)只增長(zhǎng)了3個(gè)億。

　　Signs, however, are growing that both property prices and local-government borrowing arerising again. China s National Bureau of Statistics reports that new home prices rose inJune in 25 of 70 cities it tracks. They fell in only 21. Sales volumes also strengthened.Prices are still lower, on average, than a year ago. But according to our weighted average ofthe home prices reported by the NBS, the pace of decline appears to bebottoming out . By next month , prices may be risingagain, year-on-year.

　　不過(guò)，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和地方政府借款又再增加的跡象開始浮現(xiàn)了。中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局報(bào)告稱，六月份它所追蹤的70座城市中有25座的新房?jī)r(jià)格增長(zhǎng)了。只有21座城市的下跌了，成交量也增加了。平均價(jià)格仍比一年以前便宜。不過(guò)，根據(jù)我們對(duì)統(tǒng)計(jì)局報(bào)告中房屋價(jià)格的加權(quán)平均，下降的步伐貌似要見(jiàn)底回升了。到下個(gè)月，與去年同期相比，價(jià)格可能又要漲了。

　　Local governments meanwhile have been given leave from their debtors prison. Reportssuggest that China s banking regulator has told banks to increase lending to betterqualified financing vehicles. These vehicles have also increased their bond sales, issuingover 420 billion yuan-worth of paper already this year.

　　同時(shí)，地方政府也被放出了借款者的牢籠。報(bào)告稱，中國(guó)銀行也監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)讓各家銀行對(duì)更有資格的融資平臺(tái)增加貸款。這些融資平臺(tái)也早就增發(fā)他們的債券，今年就已經(jīng)發(fā)行了價(jià)值超過(guò)4200億元的紙張了。

　　These twin turnarounds might be good newsa sign that property prices have stabilised andlocal governments have restored their creditworthiness. But they could also be signs ofdesperation, evidence that the central government has lost its nerve in the face of fallinggrowth.

　　這一對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)變可能是個(gè)好消息標(biāo)志著房地場(chǎng)價(jià)格已趨于平穩(wěn)，而且地方政府也已重鑄其貸款信譽(yù)。但這也可能是絕境的信號(hào)，證明中央政府已經(jīng)在下降的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)面前失去了勇氣。

　　The rise in local-government borrowing is something in between: a defensible response to aworrying slowdown. China s economy does need help, and its government has ample scopeto provide it. Some local governments took on more debt than they could handle. But theirliabilities never endangered the fiscal position of the country as a whole. The combined debtsof China s central and local governments add up to about 50% of the country s GDP . Even if local debts are understated, China has fiscal room forerror. Local governments will also borrow less and invest better than they did in theprevious stimulus effort, argues Peng Wensheng of China International Capital Corporation,a Chinese investment bank. The pressure for policy easing is much less now than it was inNovember 2008, he says.

　　地方政府借款的增長(zhǎng)介于兩者之間：是對(duì)令人憂愁的增長(zhǎng)減速的防御性反應(yīng)。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)確實(shí)需要幫助，而且政府也有足夠的能力提供幫助。一些地方政府承擔(dān)的債務(wù)大到自己無(wú)法處理，但它們的債務(wù)還無(wú)法危及整個(gè)國(guó)家的財(cái)政狀況。中國(guó)中央和地方政府的債務(wù)總合加起來(lái)差不多到國(guó)家GDP的50% 。就算地方政府的債務(wù)被低估了，中國(guó)也有容納誤差的財(cái)政空間。地方政府也會(huì)少借點(diǎn)，并且比他們?cè)谝郧芭Υ碳r(shí)期投資得好一些，中金公司的彭文生反駁道，中金公司是一家中國(guó)的投行。他說(shuō)，目前進(jìn)行政策寬松的壓力要比2008年11月時(shí)的小很多。

　　The rebound in the property market is harder to interpret. It may also reflect amisreading of government policy. Some local governments have eased property curbssurreptitiously, hoping to revive construction jobs and land sales . The central government is also keen to encourage first-time homebuyers. But itinsists that it will still strictly enforce existing curbs on people, especially out-of-towners,buying more than one home. This week the State Council, China s cabinet, said it wouldsend inspectors to 16 cities and provinces to curb backsliding.

　　房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的回彈則更難解釋。它也可能反應(yīng)出了對(duì)政府政策的誤讀。有些地方政府希望復(fù)蘇建筑業(yè)的就業(yè)和土地出讓，已經(jīng)偷偷放松了房地產(chǎn)的限制。中央政府也期望能夠鼓勵(lì)初次購(gòu)房者。但它也堅(jiān)持仍將嚴(yán)格實(shí)施目前的限制，尤其是對(duì)外地人和購(gòu)買多套住房者。本周，中國(guó)的議會(huì)國(guó)務(wù)院聲明它將派出巡視員到16個(gè)省市去控制倒行逆施。

　　Yet in most cities, says Jinsong Du of Credit Suisse, it is ever easier to circumvent the rules.He cites one high-profile launch in Shanghai where the flats went for 3m Dollar each. Eventhe estate agents on site admitted that most buyers already owned several other properties.

　　瑞士信貸的杜勁松說(shuō)，但在大多數(shù)城市，很容易繞開這些規(guī)定。他以上海舉了個(gè)印象深刻的例子，上海公寓達(dá)到了300萬(wàn)美元一套。就連房產(chǎn)中介都承認(rèn)很多購(gòu)買者已經(jīng)擁有了好幾處別的房地產(chǎn)。

　　But surely if China s property market was a burst bubble, even a forthright relaxation ofcontrols would not reflate it? After America s property prices began falling in earnest,policymakers tried in vain for years to revive them. Japan has been trying to perk up pricesfor more than 20 years.

　　不過(guò)毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，如果中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是破裂的泡沫，就算是直接放松管制也不會(huì)讓它再膨脹的。美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格開始下跌之后，政策制定者們?cè)嚵撕脦啄陙?lái)重振它們都于事無(wú)補(bǔ)。日本試著恢復(fù)價(jià)格都已經(jīng)試了20多年了。

　　China s property dynamics may differ, however. In many asset bubbles, prices are pushedup by greedy investors, who borrow heavily to buy. When their creditors get nervous, theydefault or dump their assets. These fire sales quickly feed on themselves. But China sproperty-buyers are often wealthy firms and individuals looking for somewhere to park theirsavings. Certainly, they see property as an investment. But they do not necessarily expectprices to go through the roof. Give them any prospect of beating inflation in the long run,and they will buy. China, after all, offers few other options.

　　不過(guò)，中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)動(dòng)態(tài)可能不同。在很多資產(chǎn)泡沫中，價(jià)格被貪婪的投資者推高，他們借了很多去買的。當(dāng)他們的債權(quán)人變得焦急時(shí)，他們就會(huì)違約或者傾售其資產(chǎn)。這些減價(jià)銷售很快相互刺激惡化。但中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)購(gòu)買者常常是一些尋求存放其儲(chǔ)蓄之處的富有公司和個(gè)人。當(dāng)然，他們把房地產(chǎn)視為一種投資。不過(guò)他們當(dāng)然沒(méi)有預(yù)料到房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)飛漲。給他們?nèi)魏晤A(yù)期能夠在長(zhǎng)期跑贏通脹的，他們都會(huì)買的。畢竟，中國(guó)沒(méi)有提供別的選擇。

　　China s economy;Not with a bang

　　中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì);不咋地;

　　China s property prices and its local-governmentdebt have started rising again. That may be a goodthing

　　中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和地方政府債務(wù)又開始上升了，這或許是件好事

　　FangZhuang, a high-rise neighbourhood tuckedinside Beijing s third ring road, was one of China sfirst commercial housing projects. Its fourdivisions share a park, schools, a courthouse and aCarrefour supermarket. Characters in the divisions four names combine to mean stars ofthe ancient world. Back in 1990 Fangzhuang flats sold for about 1,500 yuan per square metre, according to Credit Suisse, a bank. Since then, prices havereached for the stars of the modern world, exceeding 30,000 yuan in that part of Beijing.

　　擠在北京三環(huán)內(nèi)的高層住宅區(qū)方莊，曾是中國(guó)第一個(gè)商業(yè)住宅項(xiàng)目。它的四個(gè)小區(qū)共用一個(gè)公園、學(xué)校、一個(gè)法院和一個(gè)家樂(lè)福超市。將這四個(gè)小區(qū)名字中間的漢字連起來(lái)就是古城群星。根據(jù)瑞士信貸一家銀行，早在1990年，方莊公寓大概賣1500元一平米。從那以后，價(jià)格就成了當(dāng)世巨星，北京那一塊的價(jià)格超過(guò)了3萬(wàn)元。

　　China s unruly property market was once dubbed, with excusable hyperbole, the mostimportant sector in the entire global economy by Jonathan Anderson, then at UBS, anotherSwiss bank. It remains the biggest fear hanging over the world s second-biggest economy.Home prices began falling about a year ago. The declines have depressed investment andcurtailed economic growth, which slowed to 7.6% in the second quarter, its slowest rate since2009.

　　中國(guó)不規(guī)范的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)曾被當(dāng)時(shí)在瑞銀信貸另一家瑞士銀行的喬納森安德森封為整個(gè)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中最重要的部分，運(yùn)用了適當(dāng)?shù)目鋸垺Ｋ€是懸在世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體之上的最大擔(dān)憂。住宅價(jià)格約一年前開始下跌。該下跌抑制了投資，還縮減了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)減緩至7.6%2009年以來(lái)最慢的增長(zhǎng)率。

　　The only economic anxiety to rival property is local-government debt. Estimated at 10.7trillion yuan at the end of 2010 by official auditors , muchof it was held at one remove by so-called local-government financing vehicles. When onesuch, Yunnan Highway Development and Investment, told creditors in 2011 that it would notrepay the principal on their loans, it was described as the defaultheard around the world by Business Insider, a news website.

　　唯一能與房地產(chǎn)匹敵的經(jīng)濟(jì)上的憂慮就是地方政府債務(wù)了。2010年底官方審計(jì)部門估計(jì)有1.7萬(wàn)億元，其中很多隔離出來(lái)讓所謂的地方政府融資平臺(tái)持有。當(dāng)這樣的一家公司云南高速公路開發(fā)投資公司，在2011年告訴債權(quán)人將不會(huì)歸還他們貸款的本金時(shí)，這被一家資訊網(wǎng)站《商業(yè)內(nèi)幕》形容為地球人都知道的違約。

　　Both worries have roots in the stimulus spree on which China embarked in November 2008.State-owned enterprises began bidding enthusiastically in land auctions, and localgovernments let their pet projects run wild. Ever since, the two problems have preoccupiedChina s central government. In April 2010 it put curbs on speculative homebuying and spentmuch of last year tidying up local finances. This spring, Wen Jiabao, the prime minister,boasted that local-government debt had grown by a mere 300m yuan in 2011.

　　這些憂慮都源于中國(guó)2008年11月著手的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃。國(guó)有企業(yè)開始在土地拍賣中狂熱地競(jìng)標(biāo)，而地方政府讓他猛寵愛(ài)的項(xiàng)目撒野了。從此，這兩個(gè)問(wèn)題就困擾中國(guó)的中央政府了。在2010年4月，它開始限制投資性住房的買入，還用了去年大部分時(shí)間清理地方融資問(wèn)題。今年春季，總理溫家寶自豪地說(shuō)，2011年地方政府債務(wù)只增長(zhǎng)了3個(gè)億。

　　Signs, however, are growing that both property prices and local-government borrowing arerising again. China s National Bureau of Statistics reports that new home prices rose inJune in 25 of 70 cities it tracks. They fell in only 21. Sales volumes also strengthened.Prices are still lower, on average, than a year ago. But according to our weighted average ofthe home prices reported by the NBS, the pace of decline appears to bebottoming out . By next month , prices may be risingagain, year-on-year.

　　不過(guò)，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和地方政府借款又再增加的跡象開始浮現(xiàn)了。中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局報(bào)告稱，六月份它所追蹤的70座城市中有25座的新房?jī)r(jià)格增長(zhǎng)了。只有21座城市的下跌了，成交量也增加了。平均價(jià)格仍比一年以前便宜。不過(guò)，根據(jù)我們對(duì)統(tǒng)計(jì)局報(bào)告中房屋價(jià)格的加權(quán)平均，下降的步伐貌似要見(jiàn)底回升了。到下個(gè)月，與去年同期相比，價(jià)格可能又要漲了。

　　Local governments meanwhile have been given leave from their debtors prison. Reportssuggest that China s banking regulator has told banks to increase lending to betterqualified financing vehicles. These vehicles have also increased their bond sales, issuingover 420 billion yuan-worth of paper already this year.

　　同時(shí)，地方政府也被放出了借款者的牢籠。報(bào)告稱，中國(guó)銀行也監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)讓各家銀行對(duì)更有資格的融資平臺(tái)增加貸款。這些融資平臺(tái)也早就增發(fā)他們的債券，今年就已經(jīng)發(fā)行了價(jià)值超過(guò)4200億元的紙張了。

　　These twin turnarounds might be good newsa sign that property prices have stabilised andlocal governments have restored their creditworthiness. But they could also be signs ofdesperation, evidence that the central government has lost its nerve in the face of fallinggrowth.

　　這一對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)變可能是個(gè)好消息標(biāo)志著房地場(chǎng)價(jià)格已趨于平穩(wěn)，而且地方政府也已重鑄其貸款信譽(yù)。但這也可能是絕境的信號(hào)，證明中央政府已經(jīng)在下降的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)面前失去了勇氣。

　　The rise in local-government borrowing is something in between: a defensible response to aworrying slowdown. China s economy does need help, and its government has ample scopeto provide it. Some local governments took on more debt than they could handle. But theirliabilities never endangered the fiscal position of the country as a whole. The combined debtsof China s central and local governments add up to about 50% of the country s GDP . Even if local debts are understated, China has fiscal room forerror. Local governments will also borrow less and invest better than they did in theprevious stimulus effort, argues Peng Wensheng of China International Capital Corporation,a Chinese investment bank. The pressure for policy easing is much less now than it was inNovember 2008, he says.

　　地方政府借款的增長(zhǎng)介于兩者之間：是對(duì)令人憂愁的增長(zhǎng)減速的防御性反應(yīng)。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)確實(shí)需要幫助，而且政府也有足夠的能力提供幫助。一些地方政府承擔(dān)的債務(wù)大到自己無(wú)法處理，但它們的債務(wù)還無(wú)法危及整個(gè)國(guó)家的財(cái)政狀況。中國(guó)中央和地方政府的債務(wù)總合加起來(lái)差不多到國(guó)家GDP的50% 。就算地方政府的債務(wù)被低估了，中國(guó)也有容納誤差的財(cái)政空間。地方政府也會(huì)少借點(diǎn)，并且比他們?cè)谝郧芭Υ碳r(shí)期投資得好一些，中金公司的彭文生反駁道，中金公司是一家中國(guó)的投行。他說(shuō)，目前進(jìn)行政策寬松的壓力要比2008年11月時(shí)的小很多。

　　The rebound in the property market is harder to interpret. It may also reflect amisreading of government policy. Some local governments have eased property curbssurreptitiously, hoping to revive construction jobs and land sales . The central government is also keen to encourage first-time homebuyers. But itinsists that it will still strictly enforce existing curbs on people, especially out-of-towners,buying more than one home. This week the State Council, China s cabinet, said it wouldsend inspectors to 16 cities and provinces to curb backsliding.

　　房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的回彈則更難解釋。它也可能反應(yīng)出了對(duì)政府政策的誤讀。有些地方政府希望復(fù)蘇建筑業(yè)的就業(yè)和土地出讓，已經(jīng)偷偷放松了房地產(chǎn)的限制。中央政府也期望能夠鼓勵(lì)初次購(gòu)房者。但它也堅(jiān)持仍將嚴(yán)格實(shí)施目前的限制，尤其是對(duì)外地人和購(gòu)買多套住房者。本周，中國(guó)的議會(huì)國(guó)務(wù)院聲明它將派出巡視員到16個(gè)省市去控制倒行逆施。

　　Yet in most cities, says Jinsong Du of Credit Suisse, it is ever easier to circumvent the rules.He cites one high-profile launch in Shanghai where the flats went for 3m Dollar each. Eventhe estate agents on site admitted that most buyers already owned several other properties.

　　瑞士信貸的杜勁松說(shuō)，但在大多數(shù)城市，很容易繞開這些規(guī)定。他以上海舉了個(gè)印象深刻的例子，上海公寓達(dá)到了300萬(wàn)美元一套。就連房產(chǎn)中介都承認(rèn)很多購(gòu)買者已經(jīng)擁有了好幾處別的房地產(chǎn)。

　　But surely if China s property market was a burst bubble, even a forthright relaxation ofcontrols would not reflate it? After America s property prices began falling in earnest,policymakers tried in vain for years to revive them. Japan has been trying to perk up pricesfor more than 20 years.

　　不過(guò)毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，如果中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是破裂的泡沫，就算是直接放松管制也不會(huì)讓它再膨脹的。美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格開始下跌之后，政策制定者們?cè)嚵撕脦啄陙?lái)重振它們都于事無(wú)補(bǔ)。日本試著恢復(fù)價(jià)格都已經(jīng)試了20多年了。

　　China s property dynamics may differ, however. In many asset bubbles, prices are pushedup by greedy investors, who borrow heavily to buy. When their creditors get nervous, theydefault or dump their assets. These fire sales quickly feed on themselves. But China sproperty-buyers are often wealthy firms and individuals looking for somewhere to park theirsavings. Certainly, they see property as an investment. But they do not necessarily expectprices to go through the roof. Give them any prospect of beating inflation in the long run,and they will buy. China, after all, offers few other options.

　　不過(guò)，中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)動(dòng)態(tài)可能不同。在很多資產(chǎn)泡沫中，價(jià)格被貪婪的投資者推高，他們借了很多去買的。當(dāng)他們的債權(quán)人變得焦急時(shí)，他們就會(huì)違約或者傾售其資產(chǎn)。這些減價(jià)銷售很快相互刺激惡化。但中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)購(gòu)買者常常是一些尋求存放其儲(chǔ)蓄之處的富有公司和個(gè)人。當(dāng)然，他們把房地產(chǎn)視為一種投資。不過(guò)他們當(dāng)然沒(méi)有預(yù)料到房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)飛漲。給他們?nèi)魏晤A(yù)期能夠在長(zhǎng)期跑贏通脹的，他們都會(huì)買的。畢竟，中國(guó)沒(méi)有提供別的選擇。