HPs grand vision

　　惠普的遠見

　　WHEN the board of HP, the worlds largestcomputer-maker, unveiled plans to restructure, itexpected the companys shares to suffer; but not to crash by 20%. HPs bosses thoughtinvestors would love their plan to spin off the firms low-margin personal-computer business, but be wary of their plan to buy Autonomy, a British software-maker, for ahandsome $10.3 billion. In fact, they hated both ideas. On August 19th, the day after theannouncement, they wiped $12 billion off HPs market value.

　　惠普這個世界上最大的電腦制造商，在其董事會公布重組計劃時，就曾預料其股價將會下跌，但沒想到會跌20%。惠普老板本以為，他們準備放棄營利較低的個人電腦業務的計劃，會得到投資者的支持;但對于以天價收購英國軟件公司Autonomy的計劃，投資者會表示出擔憂。事實上，投資者對這兩項計劃都不買賬。8月19日，就在他們發出聲明的第二天，惠普的市值便狂跌了112億美元。

　　One problem was that the announcement left unclear what HP wanted to do with its PC unitand why exactly it intends to pay so much for Autonomy. Another factor was that many of thefirms shareholders are short-termists, who were scared away by lowered revenue and profitforecasts. But the big problem is that Lo Apotheker, HPs newish boss, is taking a hugegamble. He is trying to follow the example of IBM, by reducing HPs dependence on hardwareand pushing up into software and services.

　　一個問題是，在聲明中，惠普對于如何處理其個人電腦業務問題，態度不明朗;對于計劃高價收購Autonomy的理由，也沒能說得清楚。另一個因素是，很多股東看重的是短期利益，惠普的營業額和利潤數預測數雙雙減少，嚇跑了不少投資者。但最大的問題是，惠普上任不久的總裁里奧?阿普賽克所冒的風險實在有點大，他試圖效仿IBM，降低惠普對計算機硬件的依賴，轉而主攻計算機軟件和服務。

　　To grasp what HP has in mind, one has to understand the two main currents in the ITindustry. First, nearly any new technology quickly becomes a commodity that is easily copiedand hence not very profitable. This is why IT firms are always trying to move up the stackinto software and services, where margins are higher. Second, the biggest IT firms typicallycontrol what is known as a platform: a digital foundation on which others build theirproducts, such as Microsofts Windows. This allows them to capture a disproportionate shareof the industrys profits.

　　要想了解惠普的意圖，必須先要弄清IT行業的兩個主要趨勢。第一，幾乎所有快速被商品化的新技術都很容易被對手模仿，因此利潤不多。這也是IT公司總是想著要上移堆棧，進入營利較高的計算機軟件和服務領域的原因。第二，所謂的計算機平臺往往由最大的IT公司獨自控制，平臺是其他公司產品的電子基礎，微軟視窗就是一個例子。這些大公司因此能夠獲得行業利潤的較大份額。

　　HP seems to have ignored both currents, at least inthe past decade. Carly Fiorina, its boss from 1999to 2005, merged with Compaq, another computer-maker, in a deal worth $25 billion. Mark Hurd, hersuccessor, cut costs but was ousted in 2010 after adust-up over sex and expenses before he could fixthe firms strategy.

　　惠普對兩種趨勢均重視不夠，至少過去10年是這樣。卡莉?菲奧利那在1999-2005年間擔任惠普總裁，她曾以250億美元的價格合并了另一家電腦制造商康柏。她的繼任者馬克?赫德對成本進行了削減，但他在2010年因性丑聞和虛報費用等事被免職，也未能對公司戰略進行及時調整。

　　That job now falls to Mr Apotheker. The firms PC business is the worlds biggest, but is not asprofitable as HPs other units. What is more, most buyers of HPs machines are consumers,whose demands shift faster and more whimsically than those of corporate customers. So HPintends to turn its PC business into a separate unit and then spin it off.

　　這項重任現在落在了阿普賽克先生的肩上。惠普公司的個人電腦銷售業務全球第一，但營利卻不如其他業務高。另外，大多數惠普產品的購買者是個人消費者，與公司客戶相比，他們對產品的需求變化多端，難以把握。因此，惠普希望把他們的個人電腦業務先獨立出來，然后再從惠普公司逐步分離出去。

　　Buying Autonomy also helps HP to move onto higher-margin terrain: the British firmsoperating margins exceed 40%. But the main reason HP paid a 64% premium for its sharesseems to be that it believes that Autonomys technology could be turned into a platform tohelp companies make sense of their ever-growing pile of data. This includes not onlystructured data , but also the unstructured kind , which now makes up more than 80% of the information that flows through a typicalcompany.

　　購買 Autonomy也可以幫助惠普跨入營利高地，這家英國公司的經營利潤率超過40%。但惠普愿以高出市價64%的價格購買其股份，似乎是因為，它們相信 Autonomy的技術能夠成為一個平臺，以幫助各企業處理他們日益膨脹的數據庫。這不僅包括結構化的數據，也包括非結構化的數據，現在這些數據已占到公司信息流總量的80%還要多。

　　Such a platform would allow firms to do some niftythings. A retailer, for instance, might decide howmuch beer to stock based not just on previoussales records, but also on weather forecasts, partychatter on social media and schedules for sportsmatches.

　　這樣一個平臺能讓公司更加出色地完成想做的事，比如一個零售商，在決定啤酒的庫存量時，可能不僅要參照它的前期記錄，也要考慮未來的天氣情況、社會傳媒的聚會談話以及體育比賽的日程安排。

　　All this sounds sensible. But establishing a newplatform and ultimately becoming a firm that looks much like IBM is a tall order. Many otherfirms are also jostling to become the main interpreter of corporate data. To reach its goal ofhaving software generate 8-9% of its revenues by 2023, up from less than 3% today, HP willprobably have to make further acquisitions. And its services business is mainly about keeping ITsystems running, not about helping firms reinvent themselves .

　　這些說起來簡單，但要建立一個新的平臺并最終成為一家類似IBM的公司并不容易。許多IT公司在企業數據處理方面展開了競爭。為了將其軟件收入由現在的 3%提高到2023年的8-9%，惠普也許還要收購更多的公司。另外，惠普的服務業務主要是保持IT系統的運行，而不是幫助公司完成自我再造。

　　Given the difficulties, it is not surprising that many shareholders have bolted. But HP and itsnew boss should not be faulted for trying. They have little alternative, if they wish to avoidbecoming a collection of commodity businesses. Technology is a brutal business, says MrApotheker. If you dont innovate and reinvent yourself, you will become obsolete.

　　困難如此之多，許多投資者溜之大吉也就不足為怪。但惠普及其新總裁這樣努力并沒有過錯。要想不再成為一個計算機商品大賣場，他們別無選擇。阿普賽克先生表示：技術行業競爭非常殘酷，如果你不創新，不能完成自我再造，就只能被淘汰。

　　HPs grand vision

　　惠普的遠見

　　WHEN the board of HP, the worlds largestcomputer-maker, unveiled plans to restructure, itexpected the companys shares to suffer; but not to crash by 20%. HPs bosses thoughtinvestors would love their plan to spin off the firms low-margin personal-computer business, but be wary of their plan to buy Autonomy, a British software-maker, for ahandsome $10.3 billion. In fact, they hated both ideas. On August 19th, the day after theannouncement, they wiped $12 billion off HPs market value.

　　惠普這個世界上最大的電腦制造商，在其董事會公布重組計劃時，就曾預料其股價將會下跌，但沒想到會跌20%。惠普老板本以為，他們準備放棄營利較低的個人電腦業務的計劃，會得到投資者的支持;但對于以天價收購英國軟件公司Autonomy的計劃，投資者會表示出擔憂。事實上，投資者對這兩項計劃都不買賬。8月19日，就在他們發出聲明的第二天，惠普的市值便狂跌了112億美元。

　　One problem was that the announcement left unclear what HP wanted to do with its PC unitand why exactly it intends to pay so much for Autonomy. Another factor was that many of thefirms shareholders are short-termists, who were scared away by lowered revenue and profitforecasts. But the big problem is that Lo Apotheker, HPs newish boss, is taking a hugegamble. He is trying to follow the example of IBM, by reducing HPs dependence on hardwareand pushing up into software and services.

　　一個問題是，在聲明中，惠普對于如何處理其個人電腦業務問題，態度不明朗;對于計劃高價收購Autonomy的理由，也沒能說得清楚。另一個因素是，很多股東看重的是短期利益，惠普的營業額和利潤數預測數雙雙減少，嚇跑了不少投資者。但最大的問題是，惠普上任不久的總裁里奧?阿普賽克所冒的風險實在有點大，他試圖效仿IBM，降低惠普對計算機硬件的依賴，轉而主攻計算機軟件和服務。

　　To grasp what HP has in mind, one has to understand the two main currents in the ITindustry. First, nearly any new technology quickly becomes a commodity that is easily copiedand hence not very profitable. This is why IT firms are always trying to move up the stackinto software and services, where margins are higher. Second, the biggest IT firms typicallycontrol what is known as a platform: a digital foundation on which others build theirproducts, such as Microsofts Windows. This allows them to capture a disproportionate shareof the industrys profits.

　　要想了解惠普的意圖，必須先要弄清IT行業的兩個主要趨勢。第一，幾乎所有快速被商品化的新技術都很容易被對手模仿，因此利潤不多。這也是IT公司總是想著要上移堆棧，進入營利較高的計算機軟件和服務領域的原因。第二，所謂的計算機平臺往往由最大的IT公司獨自控制，平臺是其他公司產品的電子基礎，微軟視窗就是一個例子。這些大公司因此能夠獲得行業利潤的較大份額。

　　HP seems to have ignored both currents, at least inthe past decade. Carly Fiorina, its boss from 1999to 2005, merged with Compaq, another computer-maker, in a deal worth $25 billion. Mark Hurd, hersuccessor, cut costs but was ousted in 2010 after adust-up over sex and expenses before he could fixthe firms strategy.

　　惠普對兩種趨勢均重視不夠，至少過去10年是這樣。卡莉?菲奧利那在1999-2005年間擔任惠普總裁，她曾以250億美元的價格合并了另一家電腦制造商康柏。她的繼任者馬克?赫德對成本進行了削減，但他在2010年因性丑聞和虛報費用等事被免職，也未能對公司戰略進行及時調整。

　　That job now falls to Mr Apotheker. The firms PC business is the worlds biggest, but is not asprofitable as HPs other units. What is more, most buyers of HPs machines are consumers,whose demands shift faster and more whimsically than those of corporate customers. So HPintends to turn its PC business into a separate unit and then spin it off.

　　這項重任現在落在了阿普賽克先生的肩上。惠普公司的個人電腦銷售業務全球第一，但營利卻不如其他業務高。另外，大多數惠普產品的購買者是個人消費者，與公司客戶相比，他們對產品的需求變化多端，難以把握。因此，惠普希望把他們的個人電腦業務先獨立出來，然后再從惠普公司逐步分離出去。

　　Buying Autonomy also helps HP to move onto higher-margin terrain: the British firmsoperating margins exceed 40%. But the main reason HP paid a 64% premium for its sharesseems to be that it believes that Autonomys technology could be turned into a platform tohelp companies make sense of their ever-growing pile of data. This includes not onlystructured data , but also the unstructured kind , which now makes up more than 80% of the information that flows through a typicalcompany.

　　購買 Autonomy也可以幫助惠普跨入營利高地，這家英國公司的經營利潤率超過40%。但惠普愿以高出市價64%的價格購買其股份，似乎是因為，它們相信 Autonomy的技術能夠成為一個平臺，以幫助各企業處理他們日益膨脹的數據庫。這不僅包括結構化的數據，也包括非結構化的數據，現在這些數據已占到公司信息流總量的80%還要多。

　　Such a platform would allow firms to do some niftythings. A retailer, for instance, might decide howmuch beer to stock based not just on previoussales records, but also on weather forecasts, partychatter on social media and schedules for sportsmatches.

　　這樣一個平臺能讓公司更加出色地完成想做的事，比如一個零售商，在決定啤酒的庫存量時，可能不僅要參照它的前期記錄，也要考慮未來的天氣情況、社會傳媒的聚會談話以及體育比賽的日程安排。

　　All this sounds sensible. But establishing a newplatform and ultimately becoming a firm that looks much like IBM is a tall order. Many otherfirms are also jostling to become the main interpreter of corporate data. To reach its goal ofhaving software generate 8-9% of its revenues by 2023, up from less than 3% today, HP willprobably have to make further acquisitions. And its services business is mainly about keeping ITsystems running, not about helping firms reinvent themselves .

　　這些說起來簡單，但要建立一個新的平臺并最終成為一家類似IBM的公司并不容易。許多IT公司在企業數據處理方面展開了競爭。為了將其軟件收入由現在的 3%提高到2023年的8-9%，惠普也許還要收購更多的公司。另外，惠普的服務業務主要是保持IT系統的運行，而不是幫助公司完成自我再造。

　　Given the difficulties, it is not surprising that many shareholders have bolted. But HP and itsnew boss should not be faulted for trying. They have little alternative, if they wish to avoidbecoming a collection of commodity businesses. Technology is a brutal business, says MrApotheker. If you dont innovate and reinvent yourself, you will become obsolete.

　　困難如此之多，許多投資者溜之大吉也就不足為怪。但惠普及其新總裁這樣努力并沒有過錯。要想不再成為一個計算機商品大賣場，他們別無選擇。阿普賽克先生表示：技術行業競爭非常殘酷，如果你不創新，不能完成自我再造，就只能被淘汰。