The Big Mac index;Calories and currencies

　　巨無霸指數;貨幣卡路里

　　What burgernomics says about five years of turmoil

　　漢堡經濟學解讀危機五年

　　Our Big Mac index is back. Normally a beefy bundle of exchange rate fun, this year it ismarking a sombre anniversary: five years since global money-markets seized up in thesummer of 2007. What does burgernomics reveal about today s exchange rates, and aboutthe impact that five years of distress, from credit crunch to euro crisis, have had oncurrencies?

　　《經濟學人》的巨無霸指數又回來啦!與往常拿厚厚一疊匯率開玩笑不同，今年是為了黯然紀念2007年夏全球金融市場失靈五周年。漢堡經濟學該如何解讀現今的匯率形勢，以及五年混亂從信貸緊縮到歐元危機對貨幣的影響?

　　The Big Mac index is The Economist s burger-based measure of whether currencies are over-or undervalued. The recipe comes from the theory of purchasing-power parity, which saysthat exchange rates should eventually adjust to make the price of a basket of goods thesame in each country. Our basket contains just one item: the Big Mac hamburger, which ispretty much the same around the world.

　　巨無霸指數是《經濟學人》以漢堡價格為基礎來衡量一國貨幣是否被高估或低估。其理論依據是購買力評價學說，該學說認為應使匯率最終調整到使各國一籃子商品的價格相同。《經濟學人》的籃子里只有一樣商品：巨無霸漢堡，該商品在全世界賣的幾乎是一樣的。

　　The index works by calculating the exchange rate that would leave a Big Mac costing thesame in each country. Take the rouble and the real, the currencies of Russia and Brazilrespectively. At current exchange rates a Big Mac, which sells for 4.33 dollor in America,costs just 2.29 dollor in Russia, whereas in Brazil it sells for a sliver under 5 dollor. So the dollar buys a lot of burger in Russia, signalling that the rouble is cheapand the real rather pricey. A selection of other currencies is included in the chart .

　　巨無霸指數的作用在于計算出使各國漢堡價格相同的匯率。以俄羅斯貨幣盧布和巴西貨幣雷亞爾為例。在當前匯率下，一個巨無霸在美國售價為4.33美元，在俄羅斯僅售2.29美元，然而巴西的售價略低于5美元。所以美元在俄羅斯可以買到許多漢堡，這說明盧布比較便宜而雷亞爾相當昂貴。該圖表顯示了其他代表性貨幣情況

　　In addition to the real, several other currencies look dear, according to the latest Mcdata. Agroup of rich European countriesnone of them in the euro zonesit near the top of the pile.At the other end, the yen, the pound and the Canadian dollar all look cheap. But it is in Asiathat you get the most burger for your buck: China, Indonesia and Hong Kong are all morethan 40% undervalued.

　　根據美國麥迪數據公司最新數據顯示，除了雷亞爾，其他幾種貨幣也表現得昂貴。一批富裕的歐洲國家 都沒有加入歐元區處在排行的前列。另一端，日元、英鎊、以及加拿大元都表現的廉價。然而在亞洲買漢堡才是最劃算：中國、印度尼西亞、和中國香港的貨幣都低估了40%以上。

　　There have been some big shifts in fortune since the first rumblings of the crisis, five yearsago. The Australian dollar has strengthened, moving from 14% undervalued to 8%overvalued. In the early part of the crisis Australia s well-capitalised banks provedremarkably resilient; more recently, the currency has benefited from a spike in commoditiesprices , and from strong exports to China. Japan and Brazil also have beefiercurrencies than five years ago.

　　自五年前經濟危機伊始，全球財富進行了一些大洗牌。澳元走強，從低估40%升至高估8%。在危機早期，澳洲資本雄厚的銀行顯著地證明了自己具有彈性。最近，澳元又受益于大宗商品價格飆升，以及對中國強勁的出口。日本和巴西的貨幣也比五年前更堅挺。

　　Others have weakened. The British pound is a shadow of its former self: since 2007 it hasmoved from 18% overvalued to 4% undervalued. Britain s experience has been theopposite of Australia s: its financial industry, a big chunk of the overall economy, was at theheart of the financial turmoil and its biggest exportmarket, the euro zone, is in a dreadful mess.

　　其他貨幣則變得疲軟。英鎊淪落為從前自己的影子：自2007年起從高估18%跌落至低估4%。英國的經歷恰與澳大利亞相反：占英國總體經濟大部分的金融業處于金融風暴的中心，而它最大的出口市場歐元區正一團糟。

　　Being at the bottom of the Big Mac index need not be all bad, though. A cheap currencymeans exports look attractive to foreigners. Slipping down the index should, in theory,boost net exports. China manages its currency using exactly this logic: to keep the yuancheap and demand for yuan-priced exports high.

　　不過處在巨無霸指數的底部也不全是壞事。便宜的貨幣意味著出口在外國人眼里更有吸引力。理論上，巨無霸指數上的下滑可以促進凈出口。中國對人民幣的管制正是出于這一邏輯：保持人民幣價格低，就可以保證以人民幣計價的出口需求大。

　　Now the biggest exchange rate move economists are hoping to see is a marked fall in thevalue of the euro. The euro zone, in particular its sickly peripheral economies, includingSpain and Greece, craves a calorific boost from the currency.

　　如今經濟學家期望看到的最大匯率變動是歐元價值的顯著下滑。歐元區，特別是糟糕的外圍經濟體渴望貨幣能釋放巨大能量，來推動經濟復蘇。

　　The Big Mac index;Calories and currencies

　　巨無霸指數;貨幣卡路里

　　What burgernomics says about five years of turmoil

　　漢堡經濟學解讀危機五年

　　Our Big Mac index is back. Normally a beefy bundle of exchange rate fun, this year it ismarking a sombre anniversary: five years since global money-markets seized up in thesummer of 2007. What does burgernomics reveal about today s exchange rates, and aboutthe impact that five years of distress, from credit crunch to euro crisis, have had oncurrencies?

　　《經濟學人》的巨無霸指數又回來啦!與往常拿厚厚一疊匯率開玩笑不同，今年是為了黯然紀念2007年夏全球金融市場失靈五周年。漢堡經濟學該如何解讀現今的匯率形勢，以及五年混亂從信貸緊縮到歐元危機對貨幣的影響?

　　The Big Mac index is The Economist s burger-based measure of whether currencies are over-or undervalued. The recipe comes from the theory of purchasing-power parity, which saysthat exchange rates should eventually adjust to make the price of a basket of goods thesame in each country. Our basket contains just one item: the Big Mac hamburger, which ispretty much the same around the world.

　　巨無霸指數是《經濟學人》以漢堡價格為基礎來衡量一國貨幣是否被高估或低估。其理論依據是購買力評價學說，該學說認為應使匯率最終調整到使各國一籃子商品的價格相同。《經濟學人》的籃子里只有一樣商品：巨無霸漢堡，該商品在全世界賣的幾乎是一樣的。

　　The index works by calculating the exchange rate that would leave a Big Mac costing thesame in each country. Take the rouble and the real, the currencies of Russia and Brazilrespectively. At current exchange rates a Big Mac, which sells for 4.33 dollor in America,costs just 2.29 dollor in Russia, whereas in Brazil it sells for a sliver under 5 dollor. So the dollar buys a lot of burger in Russia, signalling that the rouble is cheapand the real rather pricey. A selection of other currencies is included in the chart .

　　巨無霸指數的作用在于計算出使各國漢堡價格相同的匯率。以俄羅斯貨幣盧布和巴西貨幣雷亞爾為例。在當前匯率下，一個巨無霸在美國售價為4.33美元，在俄羅斯僅售2.29美元，然而巴西的售價略低于5美元。所以美元在俄羅斯可以買到許多漢堡，這說明盧布比較便宜而雷亞爾相當昂貴。該圖表顯示了其他代表性貨幣情況

　　In addition to the real, several other currencies look dear, according to the latest Mcdata. Agroup of rich European countriesnone of them in the euro zonesit near the top of the pile.At the other end, the yen, the pound and the Canadian dollar all look cheap. But it is in Asiathat you get the most burger for your buck: China, Indonesia and Hong Kong are all morethan 40% undervalued.

　　根據美國麥迪數據公司最新數據顯示，除了雷亞爾，其他幾種貨幣也表現得昂貴。一批富裕的歐洲國家 都沒有加入歐元區處在排行的前列。另一端，日元、英鎊、以及加拿大元都表現的廉價。然而在亞洲買漢堡才是最劃算：中國、印度尼西亞、和中國香港的貨幣都低估了40%以上。

　　There have been some big shifts in fortune since the first rumblings of the crisis, five yearsago. The Australian dollar has strengthened, moving from 14% undervalued to 8%overvalued. In the early part of the crisis Australia s well-capitalised banks provedremarkably resilient; more recently, the currency has benefited from a spike in commoditiesprices , and from strong exports to China. Japan and Brazil also have beefiercurrencies than five years ago.

　　自五年前經濟危機伊始，全球財富進行了一些大洗牌。澳元走強，從低估40%升至高估8%。在危機早期，澳洲資本雄厚的銀行顯著地證明了自己具有彈性。最近，澳元又受益于大宗商品價格飆升，以及對中國強勁的出口。日本和巴西的貨幣也比五年前更堅挺。

　　Others have weakened. The British pound is a shadow of its former self: since 2007 it hasmoved from 18% overvalued to 4% undervalued. Britain s experience has been theopposite of Australia s: its financial industry, a big chunk of the overall economy, was at theheart of the financial turmoil and its biggest exportmarket, the euro zone, is in a dreadful mess.

　　其他貨幣則變得疲軟。英鎊淪落為從前自己的影子：自2007年起從高估18%跌落至低估4%。英國的經歷恰與澳大利亞相反：占英國總體經濟大部分的金融業處于金融風暴的中心，而它最大的出口市場歐元區正一團糟。

　　Being at the bottom of the Big Mac index need not be all bad, though. A cheap currencymeans exports look attractive to foreigners. Slipping down the index should, in theory,boost net exports. China manages its currency using exactly this logic: to keep the yuancheap and demand for yuan-priced exports high.

　　不過處在巨無霸指數的底部也不全是壞事。便宜的貨幣意味著出口在外國人眼里更有吸引力。理論上，巨無霸指數上的下滑可以促進凈出口。中國對人民幣的管制正是出于這一邏輯：保持人民幣價格低，就可以保證以人民幣計價的出口需求大。

　　Now the biggest exchange rate move economists are hoping to see is a marked fall in thevalue of the euro. The euro zone, in particular its sickly peripheral economies, includingSpain and Greece, craves a calorific boost from the currency.

　　如今經濟學家期望看到的最大匯率變動是歐元價值的顯著下滑。歐元區，特別是糟糕的外圍經濟體渴望貨幣能釋放巨大能量，來推動經濟復蘇。