Electric power

　　電力

　　Slow burners.

　　天燃氣發電業逐漸升溫。

　　Cheap gas will boost makers of giant turbines.

　　廉價天然氣將促進大型渦輪機生產廠家的發展。

　　THE boom in shale-gas production in America,using fracking technology, is becoming a bust forsome big drilling firms. On August 3rd BHP Billitonannounced a near-$3 billion write-down on some of its American gasfields because soaringproduction has made prices crash. Three days later Chesapeake Energy revealed a slump inquarterly profits because of the glut. However, if gas is cheap and abundant, more of it willbe used to generate electricity. This should help the handful of global firms that make themassive turbines used in gas-fired power stations.

　　由于 水力壓裂 技術的使用，美國的頁巖氣開采迅速發展，但這卻使一些大型鉆井公司破產。 8月3日，必和必拓公司宣布美國部分氣田預估值將減少近30億美元，這是由于頁巖氣開采量的猛增導致了天然氣價格的暴跌。三天后，切薩皮克能源公司透露，由于頁巖氣供大于求，最新一季度利潤大幅下跌。但是，如果天然氣供應充足，價格低廉，那將有更多的天然氣用于發電。那么為數不多的幾家生產大型燃氣發電渦輪機的國際公司將由此獲益。

　　Even before their fuel became so plentiful, gas-fired stations had hefty advantages. Theyare quick and cheap to build-perhaps a third of the cost of coal-fired stations, and less than aquarter of the cost of nuclear ones. Gas-fired stations emit much less carbon dioxide, per unitof electricity, than coal, which also gives off all sorts of other nasties when burned, fromsulphur dioxide to mercury.

　　即使在這之前，天然氣供應不是很充足的情況下，燃氣發電廠也有巨大優勢：修建速度快，且造價便宜成本大概是燃煤電廠的三分之一，不足核電站的四分之一。生產同一單位的電，燃氣發電廠排放的二氧化碳比燃煤發電廠排放的少。除此之外，煤在燃燒時也會產生各種有害氣體，包括二氧化硫和汞。

　　Strict new air-pollution laws, approved in America last year, will accelerate the retirementof old coal-fired stations. Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein, a bank, reckon that 66 gigawattsof coal-fired generation-around 6.5% of America s capacity-will shut by 2023. Gas willreplace much of the coal. Other countries with huge shale-gas reserves, such as China andAustralia, have barely begun to exploit them. When they do, some of the new supplies willbe used to generate electricity.

　　去年，美國通過了嚴格的新空氣污染法規，這將加速淘汰老式燃煤電廠。美國Sanford C. Bernstein銀行的分析人員估計，發電能力為66千兆瓦的燃煤電廠將在2023年前關閉。天然氣將取代大部分燃煤，成為新的燃料。其他頁巖氣儲量豐富的國家，比如中國和澳大利亞，還幾乎沒有進行開采。等這些國家開始開采時，新供應頁巖氣中的一部分將用于發電。

　　So the world s four main makers of gas turbines-GE of America, Siemens of Germany,Mitsubishi Heavy Industries of Japan and Alstom of France-are looking forward to a surge innew orders. There are early signs of this in America. If recent trends continue, Bernstein sanalysts reckon that about 74 new gas-turbine projects will get started in America, up from64 last year. But this is still below the level in the boom before the financial crisis and nothingcompared with the mad dash for gas seen in 1999-2001 .

　　因此，全球主要的四家燃氣渦輪制造商美國通用、德國西門子、日本三菱重工以及法國阿爾斯通都在盼著新訂單的激增。這已在美國初見端倪。伯恩斯坦研究公司的分析者認為，如果當前趨勢得以保持，那么美國將有74項新渦輪機項目開工，較去年的64項有所上升，但仍低于金融危機前的增長水平，更不可與1999-2001年的瘋狂攀升同日而語。

　　One reason why the growth in gas-fired stations will be more gradual this time is thatAmerican regulators are ordering power utilities to make more use of wind, solar and otherrenewable sources of energy. Another is that utilities in many states have plenty of sparecapacity. Widespread brownouts across the country in 1998 made power companiesscramble to build new gas-fired stations, only for these to come on line in time for the 2001recession.

　　這次新建燃氣發電廠的數量將有所放緩，原因之一在于，美國電力監管機構下令讓電力公司使用更多的風能、太陽能以及其他可再生能源。多個州的電力公司擁有大量剩余產能也是其中一個原因。1998年的全國大面積 燈火管制 使得很多電力公司爭先恐后修建新的燃氣發電廠，但等這些發電廠竣工投產時，卻正好趕上2001年的經濟衰退。

　　But that is just America: although historically it has represented 15-50% of world demand forutility-sized gas turbines, the growth of emerging economies means that it is now just 8%,reckons Bernstein. Power-hungry China generates only 4% of its electricity from gas but thatshare is growing fast. Both GE and Siemens have joint ventures in China. Iraq, Turkey andSaudi Arabia are likely to build many new gas-fired stations; as is Japan, after the Fukushimanuclear accident last year.

　　伯恩斯坦研究公司表示，但那只是美國的情況：盡管美國以往對燃氣發電機的需求量占到了全世界的15%-20%，但由于新興經濟體的崛起，現在僅占8%。用電緊張的中國發電總量僅有4%來自燃氣發電，但這一比重正在快速增加。通用和西門子都在中國建有合資公司。伊拉克、土耳其和沙特阿拉伯也有可能會修建更多的燃氣發電廠。去年福島核電站事故之后，日本也有可能開始新修燃氣發電廠。

　　So the global market for utility-sized gas turbines, now worth up to $15 billion a year byBernstein s estimates, is set for years of growth. Emerging-market makers, in places such asRussia, are keen to muscle in. But it will take time, and huge sums of money, to catch upwith the big four rich-country firms: Siemens and GE each spent around $500m developingtheir newest turbines. Even for challengers with deep-pocketed governments to supportthem, that is quite some barrier to entry.

　　伯恩斯坦研究公司估計，全球燃氣發電機市場現在每年高達150億美元，在未來數年內，還將繼續增加。俄羅斯等地的新興市場生產商也渴望強行擠入該市場。但要想迎頭趕上在富有國家的四大巨頭，還需要很長的時間和大量的投資：西門子和通用公司各自投入約5億美元開發最新渦輪機。即便有了財力雄厚政府的支持，潛在進入者想要進入市場，壁壘還指不勝屈。

　　Electric power

　　電力

　　Slow burners.

　　天燃氣發電業逐漸升溫。

　　Cheap gas will boost makers of giant turbines.

　　廉價天然氣將促進大型渦輪機生產廠家的發展。

　　THE boom in shale-gas production in America,using fracking technology, is becoming a bust forsome big drilling firms. On August 3rd BHP Billitonannounced a near-$3 billion write-down on some of its American gasfields because soaringproduction has made prices crash. Three days later Chesapeake Energy revealed a slump inquarterly profits because of the glut. However, if gas is cheap and abundant, more of it willbe used to generate electricity. This should help the handful of global firms that make themassive turbines used in gas-fired power stations.

　　由于 水力壓裂 技術的使用，美國的頁巖氣開采迅速發展，但這卻使一些大型鉆井公司破產。 8月3日，必和必拓公司宣布美國部分氣田預估值將減少近30億美元，這是由于頁巖氣開采量的猛增導致了天然氣價格的暴跌。三天后，切薩皮克能源公司透露，由于頁巖氣供大于求，最新一季度利潤大幅下跌。但是，如果天然氣供應充足，價格低廉，那將有更多的天然氣用于發電。那么為數不多的幾家生產大型燃氣發電渦輪機的國際公司將由此獲益。

　　Even before their fuel became so plentiful, gas-fired stations had hefty advantages. Theyare quick and cheap to build-perhaps a third of the cost of coal-fired stations, and less than aquarter of the cost of nuclear ones. Gas-fired stations emit much less carbon dioxide, per unitof electricity, than coal, which also gives off all sorts of other nasties when burned, fromsulphur dioxide to mercury.

　　即使在這之前，天然氣供應不是很充足的情況下，燃氣發電廠也有巨大優勢：修建速度快，且造價便宜成本大概是燃煤電廠的三分之一，不足核電站的四分之一。生產同一單位的電，燃氣發電廠排放的二氧化碳比燃煤發電廠排放的少。除此之外，煤在燃燒時也會產生各種有害氣體，包括二氧化硫和汞。

　　Strict new air-pollution laws, approved in America last year, will accelerate the retirementof old coal-fired stations. Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein, a bank, reckon that 66 gigawattsof coal-fired generation-around 6.5% of America s capacity-will shut by 2023. Gas willreplace much of the coal. Other countries with huge shale-gas reserves, such as China andAustralia, have barely begun to exploit them. When they do, some of the new supplies willbe used to generate electricity.

　　去年，美國通過了嚴格的新空氣污染法規，這將加速淘汰老式燃煤電廠。美國Sanford C. Bernstein銀行的分析人員估計，發電能力為66千兆瓦的燃煤電廠將在2023年前關閉。天然氣將取代大部分燃煤，成為新的燃料。其他頁巖氣儲量豐富的國家，比如中國和澳大利亞，還幾乎沒有進行開采。等這些國家開始開采時，新供應頁巖氣中的一部分將用于發電。

　　So the world s four main makers of gas turbines-GE of America, Siemens of Germany,Mitsubishi Heavy Industries of Japan and Alstom of France-are looking forward to a surge innew orders. There are early signs of this in America. If recent trends continue, Bernstein sanalysts reckon that about 74 new gas-turbine projects will get started in America, up from64 last year. But this is still below the level in the boom before the financial crisis and nothingcompared with the mad dash for gas seen in 1999-2001 .

　　因此，全球主要的四家燃氣渦輪制造商美國通用、德國西門子、日本三菱重工以及法國阿爾斯通都在盼著新訂單的激增。這已在美國初見端倪。伯恩斯坦研究公司的分析者認為，如果當前趨勢得以保持，那么美國將有74項新渦輪機項目開工，較去年的64項有所上升，但仍低于金融危機前的增長水平，更不可與1999-2001年的瘋狂攀升同日而語。

　　One reason why the growth in gas-fired stations will be more gradual this time is thatAmerican regulators are ordering power utilities to make more use of wind, solar and otherrenewable sources of energy. Another is that utilities in many states have plenty of sparecapacity. Widespread brownouts across the country in 1998 made power companiesscramble to build new gas-fired stations, only for these to come on line in time for the 2001recession.

　　這次新建燃氣發電廠的數量將有所放緩，原因之一在于，美國電力監管機構下令讓電力公司使用更多的風能、太陽能以及其他可再生能源。多個州的電力公司擁有大量剩余產能也是其中一個原因。1998年的全國大面積 燈火管制 使得很多電力公司爭先恐后修建新的燃氣發電廠，但等這些發電廠竣工投產時，卻正好趕上2001年的經濟衰退。

　　But that is just America: although historically it has represented 15-50% of world demand forutility-sized gas turbines, the growth of emerging economies means that it is now just 8%,reckons Bernstein. Power-hungry China generates only 4% of its electricity from gas but thatshare is growing fast. Both GE and Siemens have joint ventures in China. Iraq, Turkey andSaudi Arabia are likely to build many new gas-fired stations; as is Japan, after the Fukushimanuclear accident last year.

　　伯恩斯坦研究公司表示，但那只是美國的情況：盡管美國以往對燃氣發電機的需求量占到了全世界的15%-20%，但由于新興經濟體的崛起，現在僅占8%。用電緊張的中國發電總量僅有4%來自燃氣發電，但這一比重正在快速增加。通用和西門子都在中國建有合資公司。伊拉克、土耳其和沙特阿拉伯也有可能會修建更多的燃氣發電廠。去年福島核電站事故之后，日本也有可能開始新修燃氣發電廠。

　　So the global market for utility-sized gas turbines, now worth up to $15 billion a year byBernstein s estimates, is set for years of growth. Emerging-market makers, in places such asRussia, are keen to muscle in. But it will take time, and huge sums of money, to catch upwith the big four rich-country firms: Siemens and GE each spent around $500m developingtheir newest turbines. Even for challengers with deep-pocketed governments to supportthem, that is quite some barrier to entry.

　　伯恩斯坦研究公司估計，全球燃氣發電機市場現在每年高達150億美元，在未來數年內，還將繼續增加。俄羅斯等地的新興市場生產商也渴望強行擠入該市場。但要想迎頭趕上在富有國家的四大巨頭，還需要很長的時間和大量的投資：西門子和通用公司各自投入約5億美元開發最新渦輪機。即便有了財力雄厚政府的支持，潛在進入者想要進入市場，壁壘還指不勝屈。